New Zealand’s macroeconomic situation has gradually improved throughout last year which has been reflected in deal volume data. This positive trajectory provided clear indicators of which sectors are expected to dominate the M&A landscape in the coming year.

There is reason for optimism as economic conditions improve, interest rates bottom out and a weakened dollar and pro‑investment regulatory settings make New Zealand an attractive destination for offshore investors. This will be tempered, however, by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and lagging consumer confidence.

Technology, Media, and Telecommunications: Leading the charge

Recent data indicates that Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) will continue to be the dominant sector for M&A activity in the year ahead.

AI has been a hot topic throughout 2025 and its incorporation into a variety of businesses will see it remain at the forefront of people’s minds, including investors. Businesses that adopt AI to accelerate their growth will prove attractive targets, while investors will be cautious of businesses which may see disruption and lost revenues through the rise and adoption of AI. The significant investment in AI (and the growing need for data solutions) will also see continued interest in data centres, as evidenced by Pacific Equity Partners acquiring 75% of Spark’s data‑centre business last year. On the flip side, the heavy investment into AI stock has created the most material risk to an expected economic recovery should there be a “bubble burst”.

Financial services: Consistent strong performance

The Financial Services sector saw strong interest over the past twelve months demonstrating consistent M&A activity. We expect to see continued activity in the year ahead. The wealth management sector has attracted particularly strong interest with the merger of JB Were and Jarden Wealth to form FirstCape being a notable example. This trend is expected to continue into the year ahead as investors look for further consolidation opportunities in the sector. Private wealth investors more generally are expected to drive increased investment, and New Zealand is looking to harness this investment through its Active Investor Plus Visa.

Healthcare: Demographic drivers

Healthcare continues to be a sector of significant interest, driven by favourable demographics and a resilience to broader macroeconomic trends. New Zealand’s aging population is creating sustained demand for healthcare services, making health businesses particularly attractive to investors.
Healthcare technology and software businesses are likely to continue to perform well on the M&A front, as the intersection of healthcare and technology creates compelling investment opportunities. The digitisation of healthcare services and the growing adoption of health tech solutions position this sector for continued growth in the year ahead. With Tamaki Health having now been sold to TPG, we expect other primary‑care platforms to continue to attract investor interest over the coming year.

Energy and infrastructure: Long‑term investment needs

New Zealand’s need for large scale investment in energy and infrastructure will drive activity in both these sectors.

The country’s commitment to renewable energy creates plenty of opportunities in this space, particularly those involving solar and wind assets. Renewable energy deals and projects will be driven by New Zealand’s commitment to a renewable energy transition, its growing population and the increasing demand from our growing tech sector. We see this sector aligned with the broader Māori economy, with iwi and Māori collectives making attractive investment partners given their long‑term investment horizons. With the Crown looking to support the capital requirements of the MOM gentailers to invest in renewables, and New Zealand generators quickly building internal capability for wind and solar projects, there is room for more speculative project consolidation led by the gentailers.

Given New Zealand’s infrastructure deficit, we can expect to see increased activity in the infrastructure sector. There have already been a range of deals in the secondary PPP market as initial investors have sought to exit New Zealand’s first wave of PPPs and recycle capital (including sales of stakes in Transmission Gully, the Puhoi to Warkworth Expressway and Wiri Prison). There is also a fresh wave of PPPs coming to market, including the Warkworth to Te Hana Expressway and the Christchurch Corrections Facility. However, the continued appetite for PPPs is somewhat dependent on the result of the elections with a Labour‑led government far less supportive of the PPP model.

Public sector: Capital recycling

When Kiwis go to the polls later this year, we expect public asset sales to be a key election issue. National has indicated it will mull asset sales as part of the next election, but will likely want a clear mandate before going ahead. With Treasury stating that there needs to be better asset management, and noting that some assets were under‑performing or poorly maintained, we think National sees the benefit of selling off certain public assets and reinvesting capital into new assets and projects. Conversely, if we see a Labour‑led government take power, there will be a real reticence to implement a capital recycling programme. Ultimately, this is one for the New Zealand public to decide when we go to the polls.

Similarly, the Government’s decision to announce a 4% council rates rise cap will put pressure on local government to fund their expenditure. The rates rise cap is not going to stem the flow of local government costs so these costs will need to be funded from somewhere, with one obvious solution being the sale of non‑core assets by councils. In the coming years, we expect councils will explore divesting non‑core assets such as ports and airports.

Looking ahead to 2026

Based on strong recent performance, we expect the TMT sector will lead M&A activity in the year ahead, followed closely by the financial services sector. Healthcare, infrastructure, and renewable energy will also attract significant investment, supported by improving economic conditions, favourable demographic trends and pro‑investment regulatory settings.

But the election will be a big factor in how things play out. A National‑led government is likely to implement a capital recycling programme leading to sales of state‑owned assets. The rates rise cap is also expected to put funding pressure on local government with many likely to divest non‑core assets.